Probabilistic forecast of proton fluences for the solar cycle 24

Details Probabilistic forecast of proton fluences for the solar cycle 24 Probabilistic forecast of proton fluences for the solar cycle 24

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.506..133g&link_type=abstract

In: Solar variability: from core to outer frontiers. The 10th European Solar Physics Meeting, 9 - 14 September 2002, Prague, Cze

Physics

Solar Activity Cycles: Protons, Forecasts

Scientific paper

The relation between the cosmic rays and the solar actvity indices is known to be weak. In this paper the probabilistic estimation of the cosmic rays proton fluxes on the Wolf numbers was found. The database of proton fluxes since 1973 was used. To obtain the forecast of proton fluxes for the solar cycle 24 the prognosis of Wolf numbers was used. The distribution function of the proton fluxes (averaged over 8 months) was found for each forecasted Wolf numbers value (averaged over the same period) during solar cycle 24.

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