Physics
Scientific paper
Mar 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3505707d&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 5, CiteID L05707
Physics
3
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408), Atmospheric Processes: Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900), Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513)
Scientific paper
We investigate relationships between Indonesian drought, the state of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and ENSO using three instrumental indices spanning 1884-1997 A.D.: 1. EQWIN, a zonal wind index for the equatorial Indian Ocean; 2. the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), an indicator of the Indian Ocean SST gradient; and 3. tropical Pacific Niño-3.4 SSTs. A regression model of the Java Sep-Dec Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) using a combination of these indices provides significant predictive skill (ar2 = 0.50). Both the DMI and EQWIN correlate strongly with Java droughts (r = 0.71 and 0.66, respectively), but weakly with wet events (r = 0.21 and 0.18, respectively), while the Niño SST index correlates moderately with both dry and wet events (r = 0.31 and 0.36, respectively). Our findings indicate that Java droughts are intensified during El Niños that coincide with negative EQWIN conditions, which are also linked to a strengthened Indian monsoon
D'Arrigo Rosanne
Smerdon Jason E.
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