Lifetime prediction for satellites in low-inclination transfer orbits

Physics

Scientific paper

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Orbital Lifetime, Satellite Orbits, Transfer Orbits, Error Analysis, Inclination, Lunar Effects, Mass Ratios, Perigees, Satellite Perturbation, Solar Activity Effects

Scientific paper

Approximate analytical methods for estimating the orbital lifetimes of rockets used to place satellites in GEO are developed. Lifetimes are calculated neglecting the presence of lunisolar perturbations, and then weighted in the mean perigee height to account for the occurrence of the perturbations. The validity of the resulting model for varying degrees of inclination is assessed, and resonances are found which limit the accuracy to inclinations up to 35 deg. The method is designed to offer results for transfer orbits with a perigee height between 120-300 km, an apogee height near 36,000 km, and inclination between 20-30 deg. Sources of error such as the mass/area ratio of the satellite, the difficulty in predicting the average solar activity during the lifetime, errors in perigee height, and errors in the estimated mean perigee height caused by the approximations are discussed.

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