Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths

Details Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths

Mar 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008soph..248..203k&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 248, Issue 1, pp.203-209

Physics

11

Scientific paper

If the rise time RT, fall time FT, and total time TT ( i.e., RT+FT) of a solar cycle are compared against the maximum amplitude Rz(max ) for the following cycle, then only the association between TT and Rz(max ) is inferred to be well anticorrelated, inferring that the larger (smaller) the value of Rz(max ) for the following cycle, the shorter (longer) the TT of the preceding cycle. Although the inferred correlation (-0.68) is statistically significant, the inferred standard error of estimate is quite large, so predictions using the inferred correlation are not very precise. Removal of cycle pairs 15/16, 19/20, and 20/21 (statistical outliers) yields a regression that is highly statistically significant (-0.85) and reduces the standard error of estimate by 18%. On the basis of the adjusted regression and presuming TT=140 months for cycle 23, the present ongoing cycle, cycle 24’s 90% prediction interval for Rz(max ) is estimated to be about 94±44, inferring only a 5% probability that its Rz(max ) will be larger than about 140, unless of course cycle pair 23/24 is a statistical outlier.

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