Physics
Scientific paper
Mar 1999
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999pepi..111..317b&link_type=abstract
Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 111, Issue 3-4, p. 317-327.
Physics
3
Scientific paper
A hierarchical model reproducing the dynamical self-organized criticality, previously described in Blanter et al. [Blanter, E.M., Shnirman, M.G., Le Mouel, J.-L., 1988. Hierarchical model of seismicity: scaling and predictability. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 103 (1998), 135-150] is considered. We investigate the predictability of strong events in a synthetic earthquake sequence generated by this model. We apply a simple prediction algorithm based on variations of the average magnitude in a sliding time window. Though parameters of the model are fixed, the quality of prediction and the optimal threshold of alarm declaration have strong temporal variations. We show that temporal variation of the prediction's quality is larger when the energy rate is lower. Possible applications for real seismicity are briefly discussed.
Blanter Elena M.
Le Mouël Jean Louis
Shnirman Mikhail G.
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