Interannual fluctuations of the stratospheric temperature over the north polar region

Details Interannual fluctuations of the stratospheric temperature over the north polar region Interannual fluctuations of the stratospheric temperature over the north polar region

Mar 1995

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1995jatp...57..375k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics (ISSN 0021-9169), vol. 57, no. 4, p. 375-382

Physics

2

Arctic Regions, Atmospheric Temperature, Periodic Variations, Stratosphere, Annual Variations, El Nino, Regression Analysis, Solar Activity, Solar Cycles, Southern Oscillation, Trend Analysis

Scientific paper

The monthly means for the years 1964-1991 of 30 hPa temperatures over the North Pole and averaged over the 70-90 deg N region are analyzed. A multiple regression model is used to find long-term monthly trends and possible linear associations between these temperatures and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and the 11-yr solar cycle. The model's residuals are examined for detection of other periodic interannual fluctuations in Arctic temperatures. It is found that the interannual variations of temperature at 30 hPa over the Arctic are a superposition of the oscillations due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the 11-yr solar cycle, and approximate 6-yr periodic fluctions of unknown origin. The Quasi-Biennial Oscilation, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation, and the solar cycle effects in the Arctic temperature explain about 35% of the total variance of the temperature monthly anomalies. In winter, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and the 11-yr solar cycle signals in the temperature data depend on the phase of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The polar vortex seems to be warmer (colder) than normal when the West (East) phase of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a period of high solar activity. The monthly temperature trends over the Arctic show seasonal variations with positive trends in February and March. The year-round trends (sum of the monthly trends) are about -0.5 K per decade.

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