Physics
Scientific paper
Apr 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003eaeja.....8143m&link_type=abstract
EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003, abstract #8143
Physics
Scientific paper
Reconstructions of the global average temperature anomaly exhibit substantial cooling events in 1890--1910, and 1950--60. Model calculations of the global temperature based upon anthropogenic, volcanic, and solar forcing usually fail to predict these well observed events by 0.2--0.3^oC. The cosmogenic isotope 10Be is usually used as an input to the estimate of the solar forcing, and it does show substantial increases coincident with the above mentioned cooling events. The variations in the 10Be data may be due to several effects; including changing cosmic ray flux; variable atmospheric circulation; and variable snow precipitation in the polar caps, and the exact cause and amplitudes of the increases in 10Be in the two above periods has been uncertain. However, unknown to many, H.V.Neher conducted a series of high precision high altitude measurements of the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) throughout the period 1934--1965. These show that there was a large decrease in the flux of GCR between 1934 and 1950, followed by a 30% increase for several years in the vicinity of 1954. It is shown that the observed change in 10Be is well explained by this change in GCR flux, and it is suggested that the large increases in GCR flux in 1890--1910 and 1950--60 may be correlated with the 0.2--0.3^oC deviations noted above. Using the two above periods to estimate the solar forcing term yields a substantially larger temperature variability due to this factor than estimated previously.
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