Physics
Scientific paper
Mar 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.477..409s&link_type=abstract
In: Proceedings of the Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference, 24 - 29 September 2001, Vico Equense, Italy. Editor:
Physics
Geomagnetic Storms, Solar Wind
Scientific paper
Energetic ion enhancements are due, in part, to acceleration at interplanetary shocks. The arrival of these shocks at Earth correlate well with geomagnetic storms. This correlation suggests that the energetic ion enhancements observed at satellites located at L1 are a potential tool for forecasting geomagnetic storms. This relationship is investigated using ACE particle, plasma and field data and Kp for geomagnetic storm severity during February 1998 through December 2000. Forecasting guidelines were formulated and flux thresholds introduced to reduce forecaster monitoring time and to optimize prediction accuracy, defined as the percentage of large storms predicted, versus the false alarm rate. This technique predicted large storms (Kp>=7) with an accuracy >90% and with a false alarm rate of 44%. The lead times ranged from 0-46 hours, the average being 15 hours.
Murtagh W.
Smith Zdenka
Smithtro C.
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