Prediction of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks: Evaluation of an empirical interplanetary shock propagation model

Details Prediction of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks: Evaluation of an empirical interplanetary shock propagation model Prediction of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks: Evaluation of an empirical interplanetary shock propagation model

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007jgra..11205104k&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 112, Issue A5, CiteID A05104

Physics

13

Interplanetary Physics: Coronal Mass Ejections (7513), Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary Shocks, Interplanetary Physics: Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, Magnetospheric Physics: Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

The traveltimes of interplanetary (IP) shocks at 1 AU associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be predicted by the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model of Gopalswamy et al. [2004] based on a constant IP acceleration. We evaluate the ESA model using 91 IP shocks identified from sudden commencement (SC)/sudden impulse (SI) on the Earth and by examining the solar wind data from the ACE and WIND satellites during the period of 1997 to 2002. Out of 91 CME-IP shock pairs, 55 events (~60%) were predicted within +/-12 hours from the ESA model. The ESA model predicted ~59% (43 out of 73) of the events during solar maximum (1999-2002) and ~67% (12 out of 18) of the events during solar minimum (1997-1998) within +/-12 hours from the predicted curve. Comparing the predicted (T mod) and observed (T obs) shock arrival times during solar maximum, we find that the deviations (ΔT = T obs - T mod) of shock arrival times from the ESA model strongly correlate with the CME initial speeds (V CME) (linear correlation, r = 0.77). Such a strong correlation indicates that the constant IP acceleration in the ESA model is not reasonably well applied for all V CME. From the linear regression analysis, we obtain a linear fit to the relationship (r = -0.62) between IP shock traveltime T (in hours) and V CME (in kilometer per second) during the solar maximum, which can be expressed as T = 76.86 - 0.02V CME. In addition, we find that the IP shocks associated with the fast CMEs corresponding to strong SC/SI events have short traveltimes compared with other fast CMEs and that there is a negative correlation between the SC/SI strength and the IP shock traveltime. We suggest that this negative correlation is due to not only the V CME but also the CME mass/density and discuss the influence of the mass/density of CME on the arrival time of IP shock at 1 AU.

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