Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae

Details Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae

2000-02-22

arxiv.org/abs/hep-ex/0002056v1

Physics

High Energy Physics

High Energy Physics - Experiment

23 pages, 6 figures. This paper and related work are also available at http://www-zeus.roma1.infn.it/~agostini/prob+stat.html

Scientific paper

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian approach), all sources of uncertainty can be included in a logically consistent way. Practical formulae for the first moments of the probability distribution are derived up to second-order approximations.

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