Maximum-Entropy Weighting of Multi-Component Earth Climate Models

Details Maximum-Entropy Weighting of Multi-Component Earth Climate Models Maximum-Entropy Weighting of Multi-Component Earth Climate Models

2011-04-01

arxiv.org/abs/1104.0265v2

Physics

Geophysics

Inspired by discussions at the Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modelling and Prediction workshop, Isaac New

Scientific paper

A maximum entropy-based framework is presented for the synthesis of projections from multiple Earth climate models. This identifies the most representative (most probable) model from a set of climate models -- as defined by specified constraints -- eliminating the need to calculate the entire set. Two approaches are developed, based on individual climate models or ensembles of models, subject to a single cost (energy) constraint or competing cost-benefit constraints. A finite-time limit on the minimum cost of modifying a model synthesis framework, at finite rates of change, is also reported.

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