Improving realtime predictions of magnetospheric activities using STEREO Space Weather Beacon

Details Improving realtime predictions of magnetospheric activities using STEREO Space Weather Beacon Improving realtime predictions of magnetospheric activities using STEREO Space Weather Beacon

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsm41a1989b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SM41A-1989

Physics

[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2784] Magnetospheric Physics / Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models

Scientific paper

The Rice neural network models of geomagnetic activity indices Kp, Dst and AE (available from \url{http://mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html}), driven by the ACE solar wind data, have been actively running in near-realtime mode to provide short-term predictions of magnetospheric activities; subscribers to our ``spacalrt" system receive email alerts and notices of space weather based on key discriminator levels. Active structures that are likely to erupt on the sun and resulting in solar flares and/or Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are now being well imaged by instruments aboard STEREO, which also provides multipoint, realtime and continuous information of the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particles through its Space Weather Beacon IMPACT and PLASTIC. The spacecraft lagging Earth (STEREO-B) and being ahead in the Parker spiral, is well suited to provide longer lead times to predictions of any common measures of geoeffectiveness resulting from solar wind-magnetospheric interactions such as Kp, Dst and AE indices. As our models are constantly evolving, our desire to drive them by indulging these advanced instruments is to provide longer lead times. Furthermore, this paper also investigates the geoeffectiveness of predicting CME-driven storms.

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