Statistical Prediction of In Situ Hiss Amplitudes Using Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices

Details Statistical Prediction of In Situ Hiss Amplitudes Using Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices Statistical Prediction of In Situ Hiss Amplitudes Using Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsm13b2034g&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SM13B-2034

Physics

Plasma Physics

[7867] Space Plasma Physics / Wave/Particle Interactions

Scientific paper

Statistical Prediction of In Situ Hiss Amplitudes Using Solar Wind Data and Geomagnetic Indices Plasmaspheric hiss is a naturally-occurring electromagnetic wave which is often observed within the plasmasphere in the near-Earth magnetosphere. Hiss has been implicated as a major driving force for the loss of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts. As such, radiation belt models require accurate estimates of hiss amplitudes in order to plausibly model the dynamics of the radiation belts. We present a novel and straightforward approach using solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices to predict observed hiss amplitudes on the three inner-magnetospheric THEMIS probes. Our approach models hiss measurements as a first-order autoregressive process (to account for the high correlation between successive measurements), and predicts hiss amplitude using multiple regression on simultaneous solar wind parameters (e.g., dynamic pressure and IMF) and geomagnetic indices (e.g., AE and Dst). We present the performance of the model, evaluated using 10-fold cross validation. Global models such as this one have a great advantage over in situ measurements of hiss, as they are able to predict hiss amplitude over all space for any epoch where solar wind and geomagnetic index values are known.

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