Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmsm51a1345e&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #SM51A-1345
Physics
[2164] Interplanetary Physics / Solar Wind Plasma, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models, [7999] Space Weather / General Or Miscellaneous
Scientific paper
The Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) is a Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) project that couples Earth system environmental models together under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The first two coupled components in SWMS are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and the Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM). The HAFv2 model produces quantitative forecasts of solar wind parameters at Earth and elsewhere in the inner heliosphere. The IFM provides highly representative specifications of plasma conditions in the global ionosphere. The one-way coupling of HAFv2 to IFM links the solar storm drivers to the ionospheric response enabling SWMS to provide multi-day forecasts of the solar wind at the earth’s orbit and the resulting ionospheric electron density, currents and upper atmosphere dynamics. The continuing development of SWMS capability is now focused on the assessment of the uncertainties of the model results related to inputs and of the physical parameters of the models. During the current solar minimum conditions there are difficulties in forecasting the Sun-Earth system connections due to gradients in the solar wind conditions perpendicular to the earth’s orbit. We present results of a study of the uncertainties within the solar data sets that are inputs to the model, and how the uncertainties propagate through the SWMS model to impact the simulation/forecast results during the current solar minimum conditions.
Eccles Vincent J.
Fry Craig D.
Reich J. P.
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