INTERNAL VS EXTERNAL SUBSTORM TRIGGERS: TRANSFER ENTROPY AS A MEASURE OF CAUSALITY

Physics – Geophysics

Scientific paper

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[2740] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, [2788] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetic Storms And Substorms, [3235] Mathematical Geophysics / Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering, [3238] Mathematical Geophysics / Prediction

Scientific paper

We examine the expanded substorm dataset compiled by Frey [J. Geophys. Res., 109, A10304, 2004] to evaluate the question of internal vs external triggering of substorms [see Hsu and McPherron, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 1398, 2002; Morley and Freeman, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08104, 2006] using transfer entropy as a measure of causality. Transfer entropy is particularly useful to identify causal relationships in data sets because: (a) it is highly directional, (b) it includes higher order, nonlinear correlations, and (c) it can distinguish between variables that are correlated because of a common driver and variables that are causally correlated. We discuss how these properties of transfer entropy are useful for analysis of space data sets, and we examine the extent to which solar wind fluctuations are causally related to substorm onset.

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