Reliability of Prediction of Magnetosheath Magnetic Field Components from IMF Observations

Details Reliability of Prediction of Magnetosheath Magnetic Field Components from IMF Observations Reliability of Prediction of Magnetosheath Magnetic Field Components from IMF Observations

Dec 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmsm13a1597s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #SM13A-1597

Physics

[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2728] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetosheath, [2784] Magnetospheric Physics / Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

In the present statistical study, we discuss a probability of observations of the same sign of magnetic field components in the solar wind and magnetosheath. The analysis is based on 5-minute data from four spacecraft (Interball-1, IMP 8, Cluster, and Themis) operating in different phases of the solar cycle in the magnetosheath. Their measurements are compared with Wind interplanetary magnetic field observations and other available upstream monitors (ACE, Themis B, and OMNI database) are tested for some sets. For example, we demonstrate that the probability of observations of the same Bz sign in the solar wind and in the magnetosheath is surprisingly very low from general point of view. The probability changes through the solar cycle being larger at the solar minimum. Regardless of the solar cycle phase, this probability is close to 0.5 (random coincidence) for IMF Bz ~ 1 nT and it is a rising function of the Bz value. Distant solar wind monitors don't guarantee the prediction of the Bz even for values of IMF Bz exceeding 9 nT but such large values are observed only a few percent of time. A better probability profile is reached for a monitor located just upstream as it is demonstrated for the Themis project. Through the paper, we show probabilities of observations of all magnetic field components and the dependence of these observations on locations of a particular magnetosheath spacecraft and upstream conditions.

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