Analysis of Sunspot Activity Cycles

Details Analysis of Sunspot Activity Cycles Analysis of Sunspot Activity Cycles

Apr 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009soph..255..301g&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 255, Issue 2, pp.301-323

Physics

1

Sunspots, Activity Cycles, Chaos, Convective Heat Transfer

Scientific paper

A nonlinear analysis of the daily sunspot number for each of cycles 10 to 23 is used to indicate whether the convective turbulence is stochastic or chaotic. There is a short review of recent papers considering sunspot statistics and solar activity cycles. The differences in the three possible regimes - deterministic laminar flow, chaotic flow, and stochastic flow - are discussed. The length of data sets necessary to analyze the regimes is investigated. Chaos is described and a chronology of recent results that utilize chaos and fractals to analyze sunspot numbers follows. The parameters necessary to describe chaos - time lag, phase space, embedding dimension, local dimension, correlation dimension, and the Lyapunov exponents - are determined for the attractor for each cycle. Assuming the laminar regime is unlikely if chaos is not indicated in a cycle by the calculations, the regime must be stochastic. The sunspot numbers in each of cycles 10 to 19 indicate stochastic behavior. There is a transition from stochastic to chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers in cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23. These changes in cycles 20 - 23 may indicate a change in the scale of turbulence in the convection zone that could result in a change in the convective heat transfer and a change in the size of the convection region for these four cycles.

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