Trends in daily wintertime temperatures in the northern stratosphere

Physics

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Global Change: Atmosphere, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Middle Atmosphere-Composition And Chemistry

Scientific paper

Long-term changes in the extrema reached in 31 years of daily northern stratospheric temperatures (T) are discussed. The lowest T reached at any location on any day (Tmin) show trends of -1.90 and -1.85K/decade at 50 hPa and 30 hPa. Increases in the maxima (Tmax) are twice as large at 30 hPa as at 50 hPa. The trends are superimposed on a low-frequency variability of Tmin with clear peaks between 1975/1976 and 1986/1987 and after 1991/1992. Before the middle 1970s no very low Tmin were observed; this is very likely an observational constraint since T=192K this may be the lowest detectable value in the earliest years. A more robust measure of the coldness of the lower stratosphere is the area with T<195K at 50 hPa, which is relevant for PSC formation. It increased considerably over the 31 years owing largely to the persistence of cold days.

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