Estimating the Course of the Solar Activity in the End of 20th and Beginning of 21st Century on Time Variations within the Zurich Series

Details Estimating the Course of the Solar Activity in the End of 20th and Beginning of 21st Century on Time Variations within the Zurich Series Estimating the Course of the Solar Activity in the End of 20th and Beginning of 21st Century on Time Variations within the Zurich Series

Jan 1997

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997blgj...13...43b&link_type=abstract

Bulgarian Geophysical Journal, vol. 13, p. 43

Physics

2

Solar Activity, Long-Term Trend, Century Cycle, Solar Maximum 23

Scientific paper

We have examined the long term behavior of solar activity as inferred by the Zurich sunspot number series. Our purpose is a qualitative forecast of the general activity trend in the beginning of the 21st century. Smoothing the sunspot data by 11 points eliminates the major solar cycle variation and emphasizes the dominance of a century-long cycle among the possible periodicities longer than 11 years, respectively: 21.5, 24, 29, 34.5, 40.5, 62, and 99.5 years. Some of these peaks in our periodogram are not likely to be physical. Although the 21.5 peak is low, it might reflect, albeit weakly, a regularity in the Hale's cycle related to the Gnevyshev-Ohl's rule. Extrapolation of the data fit with the aformentioned periods shows a clear tendency towards decreasing the long term solar activity level. This trend is mainly due to the strong century-long cycle. Its last maximum has been during the 11-year cycles 18 and 19 and it currently approaches a minimum. The inferred long term trend implies that the upcoming 11-year maximum No.23 will be lower than the past maximum No.22. This is in contrary to the predictions for a very high maximum No.23 which are based on some modifications of the Gnevyshev-Ohl's rule. Previous work has argued that this rule is likely to be broken exactly around the extrema of a suggested quasi-century cycle.

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