Drought return times in the Sahel: A question of attribution

Details Drought return times in the Sahel: A question of attribution Drought return times in the Sahel: A question of attribution

Jun 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3612701g&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 12, CiteID L12701

Physics

Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Hydrology: Drought, Hydrology: Extreme Events, Hydrology: Hydroclimatology, Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)

Scientific paper

Recurrence times for extreme drought events in the African Sahel are estimated using a classical peaks-over-threshold model. Results, which are computed for both mean seasonal rainfall and fractional area in drought, suggest that the distribution of dry extremes after about 1970 is statistically distinct from that of preceding years. This finding throws into relief the critical role played by attribution of causes, and the necessity of improving our understanding of the physical processes driving precipitation variability in the Sahel.

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