Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmsh11a1503m&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #SH11A-1503
Physics
[1650] Global Change / Solar Variability, [2104] Interplanetary Physics / Cosmic Rays, [2134] Interplanetary Physics / Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, [2162] Interplanetary Physics / Solar Cycle Variations
Scientific paper
The cosmogenic radionuclide data from the past 10,000 years, and the instrumental cosmic ray data since 1936 provide detailed information on the possible consequences of the present long and deep solar minimum. Furthermore, the cosmic ray transport equation has been used to estimate the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) throughout the past 10,000 years. This paper presents a series of figures that document the behavior of both the cosmic radiation and the IMF at Earth in the past. In particular, the 11-year cycles in both quantities for the past 600 years are displayed; and estimates given of the cosmic ray spectrum at Earth for situations that history tells us may occur in the near future. Over the longer term, a minimum of the Hallstatt cycle (2200 yr periodicity) of solar activity occurred ~500 years ago and the Sun is now on a steadily rising plane of activity. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity has decreased extremely rapidly after earlier prolonged deep minima and this suggests rapid and large changes in the heliospheric conditions that we may see replicated. The paper will also display data from the deep, isolated solar minimum of 1956 that exhibited unusual low energy cosmic ray fluxes, and a highly anomalous cosmic ray gradient in the inner heliosphere. Paleo-cosmic ray evidence will also be displayed of an episode of intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the interval of reduced solar activity, 1892-1900, that may possibly be repeated. If the present long, deep solar minimum is a precursor to a “Grand Minimum” such as the Dalton minimum, it will provide a much improved insight into the spectrum of the cosmic radiation in interstellar space, and to the cosmic ray modulation process in the heliosphere. With this in mind, the paper suggests key measurements, and speculates on experimental conditions that may be markedly different from those encountered in the instrumental era.
Beer Joseph
McCracken K. G.
McDonald Frank B.
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