Determination of the Trajectory of Ballistic Missiles Using a Dense GPS Array

Details Determination of the Trajectory of Ballistic Missiles Using a Dense GPS Array Determination of the Trajectory of Ballistic Missiles Using a Dense GPS Array

Dec 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmsa21a1437h&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #SA21A-1437

Physics

[1220] Geodesy And Gravity / Atmosphere Monitoring With Geodetic Techniques, [2435] Ionosphere / Ionospheric Disturbances, [6929] Radio Science / Ionospheric Physics

Scientific paper

The dense array of ~1000 Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers in Japan provides useful information on atmosphere and ionosphere in terms of delays of microwaves in propagation media. Here we introduce its brand-new application, determination of the trajectories of ballistic missiles by using their electron depletion signatures in ionosphere. Booker (1961) first detected F-region ion depletion associated with a missile passage. Later, formation of an ionospheric hole by the launch of Skylab was observed, and Mendillo et al. (1975) attributed the electron depletion to the water molecules in the rocket exhaust. In Japan, ionospheric depletion after the launch of the H-IIA rocket was observed at GPS receivers in southern Japan using differences in phases between the two carrier frequencies L1 and L2 (Furuya & Heki, 2008). The so-called Taepodong-1, and -2 (the North Korean government claims that they successfully launched satellites), ballistic missiles with liquid fuel engines, were launched from Musudanri, North Korea, in August 1998, and April 2009, respectively. Their first stage engines splashed down onto the Japan Sea, and their second stage engines flew over northeastern Japan and reached the Pacific Ocean. We investigated GPS data before and after the launches, and detected that linear electron depletion areas appear in the northern part of the Japan Sea (~300 km east of the launch pad) approximately six minutes after the launch. Such electron depletion occurs as a result of exchange of positive charges between oxygen ions and water molecules, and dissociative recombination of water with electrons. The ionospheric hole rapidly grows and gradually decays as the water molecules diffuse. By comparing the numerical simulation results of ionospheric hole formation (water diffusion and chemical reaction) and the observed change in ionospheric total electron content (TEC), we conclude that the Taepodong-1 exhaust included water molecules ~0.5 percent of those in the H-IIA rocket. Taepodong-2, on the other hand, made a larger and longer-lasting hole and water molecules in its exhaust appear to be eight times as many as in Taepodong-1. This perhaps reflects improvement in thrust of the Taepodong series. We estimated the most likely trajectory of the Taepodong-2 constraining the coordinates of the launch pad and splashdown point. The missile reached the ionospheric F region in six minutes after the launch and flew above northeastern Japan about 9-10 minutes after the launch.

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