On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum

Details On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum

Sep 1987

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1987soph..111..255w&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics (ISSN 0038-0938), vol. 111, no. 2, 1987, p. 255-265. NASA-supported research.

Physics

10

Diagrams, Solar Activity, Solar Cycles, Sunspot Cycle, Northern Hemisphere, Polar Regions, Southern Hemisphere

Scientific paper

Features enabling the prediction of the beginning and the length of a solar cycle, in addition to the turning points in the period-growth dichotomy, have been identified based on butterfly diagrams for the period from 1874 to the present. The present results indicate that cycle 21 will be a long-period cycle ending after July 1987. On the assumption that April 1985 was the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle (cycle 22) spots during the decline of cycle 21 (the old cycle), it is suggested that the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots was September 1983 and that the minimum for cycle 22 will be about 1986.7 + or - 1.1 yr.

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