Adaptivity and the Architecture for a New Mars Exploration Program

Physics

Scientific paper

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Mars Exploration, Mars Missions, Mission Planning, Mars Surveyor 98 Program, Flexibility

Scientific paper

In spite of recent failures, the prospects for Mars exploration remain excellent. The motivation for such optimism is, ironically, rooted in cyclical constraints that are unique to this endeavor: (1) steady annual funding of about 200 million; (2) regular launch opportunities every 26 months; (3) four to six years for the entire spacecraft development process; and (4) six to eight years for the science to unfold through instrument conception and design, and then converge through analysis and publication. These stable cycles create an important opportunity to employ an intelligent exploration strategy that is based on interactive adaptation, using past triumphs and failures to shape future missions. This stability, however, also poses a dangerous temptation to take the opposite approach: a static exploration strategy that is focused on a limited let of scientific objectives. Such an approach must, necessarily, rely on a single overarching 'best guess' as to exactly which fixed sequence of missions is the most attractive, based on a host of assumptions about the cost, technical risk, and potential scientific benefits of the options considered. This approach, however, is fundamentally flawed, even when implemented perfectly, because it does not allow lessons learned over time from both successes and failures to be incorporated into subsequent missions.

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