Temporal variation of seismicity in a Himalayan tectonic block and the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake, India

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Spatial and temporal variation of the seismicity between 1970 and August 1991 in the northwestern Himalaya and adjoining areas of Tibet, immediately to the north, were investigated using a function of the CN algorithm. The aim of the exercise was to detect a pattern which, if known earlier, could have been used to predict the Uttarkashi earthquake of 19 October 1991 in the Garhwal Himalaya. It is observed that strong earthquakes occurring in a block, defined by longitudes 75° and 83°E and latitudes 30° and 38°N approximately, yield a distinctive pattern of temporal variation in the seismicity for the purpose. We conclude from the analysis that the seismicity in the northwestern Himalayan segment of the Alpide-Himalayan seismic belt may not be independent of seismicity in southwestern Tibet.

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