Predicted intensity of the solar maximum

Details Predicted intensity of the solar maximum Predicted intensity of the solar maximum

Jul 1978

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1978natur.274..139k&link_type=abstract

Nature, vol. 274, July 13, 1978, p. 139, 140.

Physics

25

Geomagnetism, Sunspot Cycle, Sunspots, Regression Analysis, Solar Terrestrial Interactions

Scientific paper

The paper describes a method of predicting the maximum annual average Wolf's number of sunspots. The method is similar to Sargent's (1977) method, which uses the aa index in a multiple regression equation. For the method described in the paper, the maximum annual sunspot numbers for the various solar cycles of the past 100 years are plotted against the minimum values of the annual average aa index from the six years immediately preceding each solar maximum. The regression line obtained from these data indicates that the annual sunspot number at the forthcoming cycle 21 maximum epoch will be approximately 206 (aa equal to 22.2) or 185 (aa equal to 20.0). According to a modification of the regression equation, 192 sunspots will be the maximum in cycle 21. It is suggested that the geomagnetic activity during the quiet sun years is a measure of the intensity of the processes in the sun which later show up as the number of surface spots at the maximum of the cyclical variation.

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