Validating the Proton Prediction System

Details Validating the Proton Prediction System Validating the Proton Prediction System

May 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agusmsh41a..03k&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2005, abstract #SH41A-03

Physics

2118 Energetic Particles, Solar, 7514 Energetic Particles (2114), 7519 Flares

Scientific paper

The Proton Prediction System (PPS) is an empirical model developed at the Air Force Research Laboratory to generate solar energetic proton (SEP) time-intensity profiles at 1 AU following solar flares. PPS was designed to match statistical Earth-observed average intensity-time profiles, peak intensities, and event durations. The input parameters are solar flare peak or time-integrated X-ray or radio fluxes and their times of onsets or maxima, and solar flare locations. We have validated the PPS using 101 solar X-ray flares of peak intensity > M5 from Ha disk flares during the period 1997 through 2001. We looked for correlations between predicted and observed GOES E > 10 MeV peak intensities, rise times, and event durations. There was little correlation between the predicted and observed times from flare peak to either SEP onsets or SEP peak times. When a SEP event was both predicted and observed, the logs of the SEP peaks were correlated at about the 0.5 level. However, the numbers of correctly predicted events were similar to those of the false alarms and to those of unpredicted events. We do a further comparison between the SEP events and those solar flares with observed coronal shocks to look for a predictive capability improvement in the PPS.

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