On the predictability of the Wolf sunspot number

Details On the predictability of the Wolf sunspot number On the predictability of the Wolf sunspot number

Feb 1986

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1986angeo...4...81s&link_type=abstract

Annales Geophysicae (ISSN 0755-0685), vol. 4, Feb. 1986, p. 81-86.

Physics

1

Solar Activity, Sunspots, Autoregressive Processes, Covariance, Least Squares Method, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Secular Variations, Time Series Analysis

Scientific paper

Two methods compete for predicting the annual Wolf Sunspot number: the autoregressive one and the trigonometric (periodic) one. More especially the fit of the full trigonometric model adjusted to the series of sunspot numbers from 1700 to 1972 by Sneyers in 1976 is tested by comparing predicted and observed values for 1973 to 1983. The test is extended to models combining periodic and autoregressive components. It concludes to the rejection of the full trigonometric model and to the acceptance of the simplest model combining sine waves and recurrent residual.

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