Sun-to-Magnetosphere Modeling of Radiation Belt Electrons: Forecasting Using Linked Empirical Methods

Details Sun-to-Magnetosphere Modeling of Radiation Belt Electrons: Forecasting Using Linked Empirical Methods Sun-to-Magnetosphere Modeling of Radiation Belt Electrons: Forecasting Using Linked Empirical Methods

Dec 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufmsm11d..05b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #SM11D-05

Physics

2720 Energetic Particles, Trapped, 2740 Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, 2753 Numerical Modeling, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

An important space weather threat is associated with very high energy electrons trapped in Earth's outer Van Allen zone. Past work has shown that radiation belt electron fluxes are highly dependent on the solar wind speed (VSW). Generally, when VSW. goes above 500km/s, the radiation belt electron fluxes increase substantially. We have used the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) method to predict the solar wind speed near Earth's orbit based upon solar surface measurements. This approach gives a predicted solar wind time series with a lead-time of two to three days. This forecasted solar wind speed is then convolved with linear and nonlinear filters in order to provide a predicted flux of electrons at various spatial locations throughout the outer radiation belt. We compare predicted and measured electron fluxes in order to assess the prediction efficiency and available lead times for this forecasting tool. We also compare forecasts based on the WSA method with results obtained by convolving filters with solar wind speeds measured by ACE sensors at the L1 point just upstream of the Earth.

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