Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

Details Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

Jul 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010angeo..28.1463k&link_type=abstract

Annales Geophysicae, Volume 28, Issue 7, 2010, pp.1463-1466

Physics

7

Scientific paper

In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March-May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0.

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