Statistics of close approaches between asteroids and planets - Project Spaceguard

Details Statistics of close approaches between asteroids and planets - Project Spaceguard Statistics of close approaches between asteroids and planets - Project Spaceguard

Dec 1990

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990icar...88..292m&link_type=abstract

Icarus (ISSN 0019-1035), vol. 88, Dec. 1990, p. 292-335. Research sponsored by IBM Corp., ASI, and NATO.

Physics

29

Asteroids, Orbital Elements, Orbital Resonances (Celestial Mechanics), Planetary Orbits, Statistical Analysis, Data Bases, Monte Carlo Method, Numerical Integration

Scientific paper

A data base of close approaches to the major planets has been generated via numerical integrations for a large number of planet-crossing asteroid orbits over the course of 200,000 yr; these data are then applied to such statistical theories as those of Kessler (1981) and Wetherill (1967). Attention is given to the orbits of the Toro-class asteroids, which violate the assumption of a lack of mean motion resonance locking between target planet and asteroid. A modified form of the Kessler theory is proposed which can address the problem of approaches between orbits that are either nearly coplanar or nearly tangent. A correlation analysis is used to test the assumption that the orbital elements of a planet-crossing orbit change solely due to close approaches.

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