Statistical investigation on possible seasonality of seismic activity and rainfall-induced earthquakes in Balkan area

Physics

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Scientific paper

Although the exact way the underground water variations are connected with earthquake mechanism is not fully understood and it is generally accepted that changes in the tectonic stresses are the main cause of the seismic activity of an area, the evidence for the role groundwater is playing in triggering of earthquakes is increasing more and more. For many scholars, the influence of underground water in tectonic processes is a line to be followed for explaining the puzzle of intracontinental seismicity. Considering the rainfall as the main source feeding the surface stream flows and, in turn, the underground water, in this approach a preliminary statistical investigation is performed and some results are obtained regarding the seasonality of seismic activity and the intercorrelation between rainfall and earthquakes in the Balkan area. Employing rainfall as well as seismological data, our study points out that there are zones in this peninsula where unusual rainfall could influence the natural trend of seismic activity.

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