What governs the spread in shortwave forcings in the transient IPCC AR4 models?

Details What governs the spread in shortwave forcings in the transient IPCC AR4 models? What governs the spread in shortwave forcings in the transient IPCC AR4 models?

Jan 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3601806s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 1, CiteID L01806

Physics

6

Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Cloud/Radiation Interaction, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Aerosols And Particles (0345, 4801, 4906), Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Cloud Physics And Chemistry, Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225)

Scientific paper

The coupled global atmospheric-ocean models used for transient simulations in the IPCC AR4 report differences in the present-day shortwave forcing of more than 2 W/m2. We show here that about 1.3 W/m2 of this spread could be explained by the different methods used to calculate cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) from aerosol mass concentrations. Although we cannot rule out that other forcing agents could yield comparable uncertainties, this strongly points to the aerosol indirect effect as the main contributor to the wide spread in the shortwave forcing reported in IPCC AR4.

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