Physics
Scientific paper
Nov 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001jimo...29..165j&link_type=abstract
WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization, vol. 29, no. 5, p. 165-175
Physics
10
Scientific paper
The dust trails of Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle lead to Leonid storms on Earth, threatening satellites in orbit. Here, I derive a model that accounts in detail for the observed properties of the dust trails evolved by the Comet at previous returns. It is based on the observed Leonid shower profiles and considers both peak intensity and width. The shower profiles and dust dispersions in the trail are interpreted as a projection of the Comet's light curve. Small trail shifts are observed that would put the 1767 dust trail closer to Earth's orbit in 2001 than thought before, increasing expected peak rates to a significant storm from North-American observers, between ZHRs of 3600 and 6900. Predictions for the 2002 storms are less affected. The trail shifts may result from directional ejection in a jet on a precessing comet nucleus. From the dust dispersion model, a mean particle density of 0.97 +- 0.13 g/cm^3 is calculated, semi-periods from the spin precession rate are found to be 270+-80 and 180+-20 years over the past 3 centuries, and the total dust mass loss during one return for 55P/Tempel-Tuttle is (2.6+-0.7)x 10^10 kg, which translates to an average dust to gas ration of 2.4 +- 1.7.
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