Prediction of peak-Dst from halo CME/magnetic cloud-speed observations

Physics

Scientific paper

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Magnetic Storms, Icmes, Dst Predictions, Solar Wind Speeds

Scientific paper

From the analysis of different sets of magnetic clouds and focusing on the most probable value found for the peak amplitude of their negative Bz fields, we present an estimate for the peak intensity of the associated geomagnetic storms (peak Dst).
Since the key parameter for this prediction scheme turns out to be the peak amplitude of the solar wind speed, we extend this prediction to halo CME events observed near the Sun and associated with the magnetic clouds.
Thus, a prediction scheme for peak Dst, based on halo CME-expansion speed observation near the Sun and associated with magnetic clouds, is suggested for the first time.
Furthermore, the relationship between the cloud's total magnetic field and its Bs component, empirically found for the two sets of the studied clouds, is consistently supported by the results obtained from a numerical study of magnetic clouds.

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