Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components

Details Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components

Oct 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999soph..189..217k&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, v. 189, Issue 1, p. 217-224 (1999).

Physics

27

Scientific paper

A simple method MEM-MRA, where spectral peaks are located by MEM (Maximum Entropy Method) and about a dozen most prominent ones are used in MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) to estimate their amplitudes and phases, was applied to the sunspot number (Rz) series of 1748-1996. Spectral characteristics were different in the successive 3 intervals of 83 years each. Hence, for predictions, only data for the recent 83 years were considered relevant. From the spectra for 1914-1996, the most significant peaks at 5.3, 8.3, 10.5, 12.2, 47 years were used for reconstruction. The match between observed and reconstructed values was good (correlation +0.90). When extrapolated, the reconstructed values indicate a sunspot number maximum for the present solar cycle 23 as 140+/-9, to occur in year 2000 and for the next solar cycle 24 as 105+/-9, to occur in year 2010-2011.

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