Verwachtingstijdstip Leonidenmaximum in 1998 en de mogelijke activiteit.

Details Verwachtingstijdstip Leonidenmaximum in 1998 en de mogelijke activiteit. Verwachtingstijdstip Leonidenmaximum in 1998 en de mogelijke activiteit.

Aug 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998rad....20...75b&link_type=abstract

Radiant, Jaarg. 20, Nr. 4, p. 75 - 78

Physics

Leonids: Forecasts, Leonids: Activity

Scientific paper

It appears there is a relation between the distance in the orbits of the Earth and comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle and the time of outbursts after the comet's node within a year after the comet's perihelion passage. An extrapolation departing from the 1833, 1866 and 1966 peak positions, the calculated time of the outburst is on November 17 at about 21h38mUT. An extrapolation departing from the 1833, 1866 and 1966 peak rates, the expected peak rate of the outburst in 1998 is most likely between 1 and 10 Leonids per second and probably about >4 Leonids per second. A calculation by a model gives a result of 6 Leonids per second. However, the uncertainties in the extrapolations leave considerable room for significant deviations from the values given as a "best estimate" above.

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