An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Details An early estimate for the size of cycle 23 An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Jul 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992soph..140..181w&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics (ISSN 0038-0938), vol. 140, no. 1, July 1992, p. 181-193. Research supported by NASA.

Physics

44

Solar Cycles, Solar Radio Emission, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Sunspots, Periodic Variations, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity

Scientific paper

The maximum amplitude for the next sunspot cycle is estimated on the basis of inferred statistical trends and associations from the last 12 cycles. Specific attention is given to the extrapolation of the inferred long-term upward trend against time of the maximum amplitude RM which is the maximum value of the smoothed sunspot number for a given cycle. Also examined in depth are the apparent inherent differences found in even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles. RM is plotted vs cycle number, and RM is plotted against RM for odd-following cycle pairs. RM values are shown to be greater than 110.6 for six of the last six sunspot cycles, and the trend suggests that cycle 23 should have RM of more than 150 particularly in light of the fact that the odd-following cycle is always larger than the even cycle. Evidence is shown to predict an RM of at least 176.4, making cycle 23 one of the largest of the modern era.

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