Two Years into Verification and Validation of the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE): An Update into Rising Solar Activity

Details Two Years into Verification and Validation of the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE): An Update into Rising Solar Activity Two Years into Verification and Validation of the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE): An Update into Rising Solar Activity

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh53c..01p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH53C-01

Physics

[2114] Interplanetary Physics / Energetic Particles, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7984] Space Weather / Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

For the past two years, the REleASE method of short-term forecasting of the intensity of prompt solar energetic protons of hazardous energies (~40 MeV) with relativistic electrons has been implemented. Since February 2008, REleASE translates near-real-time electron data of the SOHO/COSTEP instrument from L1 into near-future proton fluxes. The live forecasting output is available online. Electrons are well known to provide the first sign of a solar particle event in progress, approximately one hour ahead of more dangerous protons. The forecasting of the sudden increase in intensity of protons from solar energetic particle events is relevant for radiation protection of humans on exploration missions. The method utilizes the speed advantage of electrons over up to 40 MeV protons and the correlations of inverse rise time and intensity between electrons and protons in solar particle events. The effectiveness of this tool is based on the observed similarities in particle transport between the Sun and 1 AU. Electrons act as test particles by probing the ever-changing heliospheric transport conditions that act on the slower moving protons. This presentation is the first detailed analysis of the REleASE output and shows its strengths and weaknesses through the early signs of solar activity in 2010. Electrons of a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event arrive at 1 AU and provide an early sign of more hazardous protons. The REleASE model would issue an alert at this time.
Typically one hour into the event, the more hazardous ions from the SEP arrive at L1 or 1 AU along the same magnetic field lines as the electrons. This presentation analyzes the accuracy of this live warning system. The false/missed warning rate will be assessed and the accuracy of REleASE's forecast proton flux will be compared with measured fluxes.

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