Trends in the planetary sink of atmospheric CO2: The importance of land use change emission uncertainty

Details Trends in the planetary sink of atmospheric CO2: The importance of land use change emission uncertainty Trends in the planetary sink of atmospheric CO2: The importance of land use change emission uncertainty

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmgc23f0970c&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #GC23F-0970

Physics

[0312] Atmospheric Composition And Structure / Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes, [0315] Atmospheric Composition And Structure / Biosphere/Atmosphere Interactions, [0330] Atmospheric Composition And Structure / Geochemical Cycles, [0414] Biogeosciences / Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, And Modeling

Scientific paper

The growth rate of atmospheric CO2 depends upon the amounts emitted by human activity and taken up by natural oceanic and land-based biotic processes (“planetary sink”). Determining the extent to which the fraction taken up by the planetary sink is changing is key to projecting how atmospheric concentration will increase. Recently, it has been suggested that the efficiency of the planetary sink is decreasing. Because emission levels due to land use changes are not well known, we use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate how large they must have been to yield a significant (p=0.9) increase or decrease in sink efficiency over the past 60 years. Under the range of published assumptions, planetary sink efficiency trends can be either positive or negative, but are not statistically significant. The null hypothesis should remain that the sink efficiency has not changed over this period. Improved information about the historical record of land use change emissions is needed.

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