What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the troposphere?

Physics

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Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: General Circulation (1223), Atmospheric Processes: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics (0341, 0342), Atmospheric Processes: Polar Meteorology, Atmospheric Processes: Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions

Scientific paper

The factors affecting the downward propagation of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events to the troposphere are studied through composite analysis of 45-year reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. During the growth stage of SSW, events that propagate into the troposphere exhibit enhanced upward flux of the wavenumber 2 wave, while events that do not propagate downward display reduced wavenumber 2 flux. In both events, upward flux of the wavenumber-1 wave is enhanced, but the enhancement is stronger in the non-propagating event. The composite for propagating events reveals a negative Eurasian pattern of horizontal geopotential anomalies in the troposphere during the growth stage, and a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern following the event, while non-propagating events are preceded by a positive Eurasian pattern. In both types of event, the tropospheric anomalies are generated mainly by tropospheric planetary wave forcing prior to the emergence of SSW.

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