Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm51a1759h&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM51A-1759
Physics
[2788] Magnetospheric Physics / Magnetic Storms And Substorms, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7949] Space Weather / Ionospheric Storms, [7959] Space Weather / Models
Scientific paper
The performance of the Real-Time WINDMI model is surveyed for its predictions of storm/substorm events from February 2006 to present time. Three solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo voltage Vsw(t) coupling functions are used: the standard Rectified coupling function, a function due to Siscoe, and a recent function due to Newell. Real-Time WINDMI is a low dimensional, plasma physics-based, nonlinear dynamical model of the coupled solar wind- magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The realtime model at CCMC/GSFC downloads ACE data to predict AL and Dst values approximately one hour before geomagnetic substorm and storm events; subsequently, every ten minutes ground based measurements compiled by WDC Kyoto are compared with model predictions(http://orion.ph.utexas.edu/~windmi/realtime/). Model AL and Dst predictions are validated using the average relative variance (ARV),correlation coefficient (COR), and root mean squared error (RMSE). Model AL predictions correlate at least one standard deviation better with the AL index data than a direct correlation between the input coupling functions and the AL index. The earlier 2006-2008 data analysis showed that the best prediction performance for the Dst came from using the Rectified input. The work is supported by NSF grant AGS 0964692.
Horton Wendell
Mays Leila M.
Spencer E. A.
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