Forecast of auroral activity

Details Forecast of auroral activity Forecast of auroral activity

Apr 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004phpl...11.1339l&link_type=abstract

Physics of Plasmas, Volume 11, Issue 4, pp. 1339-1344 (2004).

Physics

Magnetohydrodynamics And Plasmas

Scientific paper

A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels.

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