Forecasting the magnetospheric dynamics during the superstorms of October-November 2003

Details Forecasting the magnetospheric dynamics during the superstorms of October-November 2003 Forecasting the magnetospheric dynamics during the superstorms of October-November 2003

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsa43a1066c&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SA43A-1066

Physics

2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms, 3220 Nonlinear Dynamics

Scientific paper

The nonlinear dynamical models of the coupled solar wind-- magnetosphere system derived from observational data have the advantage of capturing the essential features inherent in the data. The correlated data of the solar wind and magnetospheric response have been widely used to develop data-derived models. However these models are largely based on the data of periods when the magnetosphere is weakly driven. For example, the widely used Bargatze et al. (1985) data corresponds to a declining phase of the solar cycle and contain only a few weak storms. A correlated database of solar wind and magnetospheric time series data for the peak of the last solar cycle (2000--2001) is compiled to model the magnetospheric dynamics under strong driving. The solar wind variables obtained from ACE measurements while the magnetospheric response consists of geomagnetic indices as well as magnetic perturbations measured by ground magnetometers. This database is used to develop dynamical models of superstorms and forecasts are made for the storms of October-- November 2003. These models yield highly improved forecasts, with correlation coefficients of about 0.8 and can be improved further by actively monitoring the state of the solar wind and then using the data from the corresponding states in the database. These results show that the magnetospheric states during superstorms are inherently distinct from those of less active periods.

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