Recurrence of Super-Massive Explosions and Orbital Evolution of Comet 17P/Holmes: II. Search for Historical Records, and Outlook for Future Research

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Based on the results of Part I of this study, historical records are searched for possible observations of comet 17P/Holmes undergoing super-massive explosions. A major objective is to establish whether the two episodes of the 1892-1893 event and the megaburst of 2007 were accidental or diagnostic of a systematic long-term pattern. The comet's reference orbit (cf. Part I) has been integrated back in time to about 1000 BC, indicating that comet 17P repeatedly underwent close encounters with Jupiter, the result of which has been a gradual reduction of the orbital dimensions and period. A search ephemeris has been calculated and applied in comprehensively testing the historical records to determine -- from the timing, the location in the sky, and the physical appearance of archived objects -- pre-1892 instances of probable naked-eye detection of comet 17P during or shortly after a super-massive explosion. Attractive candidates include objects classified as dubious novae. A two-step search procedure has resulted in identifying four events as possible appearances of 17P: May 1621, August 1269, July-August 836, and September-October 305, this earliest one being the most promising instance. Forward integration of the reference orbit is used in part to probe the observing conditions during the comet's next return to perihelion in 2014.

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