Halo CME's - Will They Hit or Miss Earth?

Details Halo CME's - Will They Hit or Miss Earth? Halo CME's - Will They Hit or Miss Earth?

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufmsh21a0474j&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #SH21A-0474

Physics

2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 2164 Solar Wind Plasma, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7594 Instruments And Techniques, 7894 Instruments And Techniques

Scientific paper

To optimize the information from maps of the sky that cover large elongations we have developed a Computer Assisted Tomography (CAT) program that models these using a time-dependent three-dimensional heliospheric model to fit Thomson scattering or STELab (Nagoya University) interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. The duration of a CME event (typically several days) imposes the restriction that the reconstruction model primarily uses outward solar wind motion to give perspective views of each point in space. The results to date are commensurate with the observational coverage, temporal and spatial resolution, and signal to noise available from the original data. We provide remote observer views of IPS-based reconstructions of halo CMEs also observed by the LASCO coronagraphs. We practice our modeling techniques by making these views available in real time to forecast halo CME Earth-arrival. Here we explore the locations and shapes of a few select halo CMEs and their three-dimensional velocity structure in order to determine whether they will hit or miss the Earth. This work is supported by NASA grant NAG5-8504 and AFOSR grant F49620-01-1-0054.

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