Predicting Equatorial Spread-F with First-Principles Ionospheric Models

Details Predicting Equatorial Spread-F with First-Principles Ionospheric Models Predicting Equatorial Spread-F with First-Principles Ionospheric Models

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufmsa72b0534r&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #SA72B-0534

Physics

2411 Electric Fields (2712), 2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2437 Ionospheric Dynamics, 2439 Ionospheric Irregularities, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

The generation of radio scintillation in the equatorial ionosphere involves physical processes acting on scales from the global down to the sub-kilometer. In preparation for the launch of the C/NOFS mission, our laboratory has been developing a system of first-principles ionospheric/thermospheric models to predict the regions affected by spread-F and the severity of the scintillation within those regions. The system begins with a calculation of the ambient plasma density on near-equatorial field lines to forecast the state of the global ionosphere and provide the background conditions for a nonlinear model of the development of plasma structures on mesoscales (1-1000 km), in a nested-grid description. To estimate the strength of scintillation, the statistical properties of the mesoscale turbulence are then extrapolated down to the scales where plasma density irregularities affect radio propagation. The initial state of the ionosphere and the variation of driver parameters can be specified by data assimilation. After describing the model, I will present case-study runs of the model for the first few months of 2002, driving it with plasma velocities determined from the ionosonde at Jicamarca by David Anderson, and comparing the output of the model with measurements of scintillation on nearby radio links by Cesar Valladares. These calculations illustrate the variability of space weather in this dynamic region of the ionosphere.

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