Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3224401l&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 24, CiteID L24401
Physics
76
Cryosphere: Permafrost (0475), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets: Hydrology And Fluvial Processes, Geographic Location: Arctic Region (0718, 4207)
Scientific paper
The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present-day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with observational estimates - an area, excluding ice sheets, of 10.5 million km2. By 2100, as little as 1.0 million km2 of near-surface permafrost remains. Freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean rises by 28% over the same period, largely due to increases in precipitation that outpace increases in evaporation, with about 15% of the rise directly attributable to melting ground ice. Such large changes in permafrost may provoke feedbacks such as activation of the soil carbon pool and a northward expansion of shrubs and forests.
Lawrence David M.
Slater Andrew G.
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