Physics
Scientific paper
May 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agusmsm23a..06k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2008, abstract #SM23A-06
Physics
2720 Energetic Particles: Trapped, 2730 Magnetosphere: Inner, 2753 Numerical Modeling, 7924 Forecasting (2722)
Scientific paper
We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (>2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004- 2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.
Khazanov George V.
Lyatsky Wladislav
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