Forecasting the ring current index Dst in real time

Details Forecasting the ring current index Dst in real time Forecasting the ring current index Dst in real time

Sep 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000jastp..62.1295o&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 62, Issue 14, p. 1295-1299.

Physics

23

Scientific paper

Three models for the evolution of the ring current index Dst are evaluated for real-time implementation. Each model provides the time evolution of Dst in terms of solar wind parameters. Real-time data resources employed by the models are Kyoto Quicklook Dst and ACE real-time solar wind parameters. The implementation described provides a forecast time of about 1h due to propagation of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft to the Earth. The models are evaluated for simulated real-time data availability, and several error measures are provided. One-hour averages were used in keeping with the standard Dst index. By all measures used the model of O'Brien and McPherron (/1999, Journal of Geophysical Research, in press) performs best.

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